Cologne’s Investment Market in the First Half of 2026: The Second-Weakest First Half of the Past Ten Years—the Real Test Is Yet to Come.
Cologne, July 2, 2026. The Cologne investment market started 2026with significantly higher expectations: Sentiment had improved, numerous sales processes were in the works, and many market participants anticipated a gradual recovery. In the first half of 2026, however, the commercial transaction volume amounted to only around 250 million euros—the second-weakest first half of the year in the past decade. Only the first half of 2023, immediately following the interest rate turnaround, was weaker.
“The Cologne investment market isn’t lacking capital—it’s lacking certainty. Investors have always had to evaluate the many variables; it’s just that today this has become significantly more difficult and less predictable. As long as that remains the case, investors will be selective rather than buying. A wait-and-see approach isn’t a write-off,” says Alexander Wunderle, Managing Partner at Angermann NRW.
The structure of the deals illustrates the current market situation. Excluding the one-time effect of the transfer of a development site in Cologne-Deutz, not a single transaction exceeding 50 million euros took place in the traditional commercial real estate market. At the same time, smaller transactions under 10 million euros accounted for an unusually high share of the total volume—around 30 percent. “The market is currently driven by small deals because the big ones are missing. Even in the city center and established core locations, the number of actual transactions remained modest,” said Alexander Wunderle.
Market activity in the first half of the year was primarily driven by land sales as well as value-add and transformation projects. The pressure to sell has increased noticeably, particularly for land: Many plots were originally intended for large-scale project developments and are now returning to the market at adjusted prices. Beyond the commercial market, residential neighborhood developments and micro-apartment concepts with operator structures also entered the market. These are increasingly being evaluated by traditional commercial investors as well, but are not included in the aforementioned 250 million euros.
The reason lies in the difficulty of assessing the broader market conditions. Geopolitical risks, volatile financing conditions, economic uncertainties, future demand for office space, and the question of long-term viable uses are now interacting in a way that is both more pronounced and less predictable than in earlier market phases. This makes it difficult to agree on a common price level and, as a result, keeps major investment decisions selective.
However, the real stress test is still ahead for the market. What stands out is the high number of core office properties that institutional investors are preparing for sale or are already offering on the market almost simultaneously. There are various motives behind this: In addition to the ongoing portfolio restructuring following the market disruptions of recent years, liquidity requirements and strategic portfolio adjustments are also playing a role for individual investors.
“The real barometer is yet to come. Only when these prepared core office deals are actually sold will we know the new price level,” Wunderle explains.
If the sale of these properties is successful, it should significantly accelerate price discovery in the office segment and give the investment market new momentum. If, on the other hand, the larger deals fail to materialize, the market adjustment process will extend into 2027. “Only the upcoming institutional sales processes will show at what price and yield levels the Cologne investment market will stabilize,” says Alexander Wunderle.